Guest post by Rodger Coyne, Founder of VecViz
Isn't it the case that the price target work of Wall Street’s fundamental analyst community is entirely siloed from the price probability work of its quantitative analyst community? Might there be some opportunity there?
After 25 years on the buy-side, including significant stints in both communities, I created VecViz to help bridge the gap between them.
More recently, while viewing a chart of analyst price targets over time alongside a similar chart of VecViz (and Sigma) price probabilities in the OpenBB Workspace, a related opportunity occurred to me. I realized I had never before seen these perspectives juxtaposed in this way, begging the question “what does our relationship say about forward price performance?”. Could it be that this was an unexplored area? If so, it could hold significant alpha.
After failing to find related academic or industry research, I used OpenBB's Workspace to start researching it for myself and found it to be the perfect tool for the job.
VecVizʼs Vector Model
VecViz offers a unique approach to volatility. Instead of using price returns as the primary input, we analyze historical prices to generate and score hundreds of support and resistance trajectories.
Our machine learning powered Vector Model trains on these patterns to produce jumpy, asymmetric price probability distributions that reflect actual market behavior, not theoretical bell curves.
For fundamental analysts, we connect these price trajectories to the news items and themes that likely drove them. This combination of quantitative probabilities and qualitative narrative is visualized in our Vector Strength Histogram.
Why Building on OpenBB is a Game-Changer
When I decided to test our approach against analyst price targets, I needed something that could handle multiple data sources, complex analysis, and rapid iteration.
With the OpenBB Workspace, we could do exactly that and build dashboards that were simple to use and update.
The Workspace offers something unique: a place where proprietary models and data can be deployed safely while still accessing external data sources and AI capabilities.
Plus, OpenBB's AI Copilot could work with our VecViz probability widgets alongside price target data. This meant I could ask the Copilot to create complex comparative charts without writing a single line of code.
OpenBB Workspace and Copilot key advantages
This analysis would have been nearly impossible without OpenBB. It allowed us to:
1. Deploy our proprietary Vector Model alongside other data sources
We integrated our VecViz probability widgets directly into the OpenBB environment, where they could work seamlessly with price target data. The Vector Model's machine learning-powered distributions appeared right alongside traditional data sources, creating a unified analytical environment.
2. Use the AI Copilot to generate complex comparative visualizations instantly
Instead of spending hours coding charts, I simply asked the Copilot to create four line charts showing the percentage of price targets exceeding our upside probability levels. The Copilot understood the context from both our widgets and the price target data, generating exactly what we needed in seconds.
Plus, since we can save Copilot's output, we were able to integrate these AI-generated charts into our dashboard and use them for further analysis.
3. Iterate rapidly between different analytical approaches
When we wanted to examine correlations between forward price performance and our probability levels, the Copilot created scatter charts comparing one-month forward returns against analyst target percentages. We could ask for correlations, adjustments, and different time horizons all through simple conversational requests.
3. Maintain context across multiple widgets and data sources
The Copilot kept track of all our widgets, data sources, and previous analyses. We could reference earlier charts, combine different datasets, and build complex multi-step analyses without losing context or having to re-explain our setup.
Why this matters for investment professionals
The systematic comparison of analyst price targets against advanced probability models represents exactly the kind of cross-disciplinary insight that can generate alpha in today's markets with the help of AI-ready environments like OpenBB.
The combination of VecViz's pattern-recognition capabilities and OpenBB's integrated analytical environment makes this type of research practical for investment professionals who need to move fast and think differently.
Check out this video to see our full workflow on OpenBB:
Rodger Coyne is the founder of VecViz, an investment analytics platform that bridges quantitative and fundamental analysis. He brings 25 years of institutional buy-side experience across multiple disciplines, including quantitative analytics, fundamental credit research, credit trading, and both credit and equity portfolio management.